Staple
Food Prices in Vulnerable Countries – Maize and Wheat Double in Q2-2011 Over
2010
The vulnerability category covers 64countries. This
analysis covers the April-June 2011 period (Q2-2011)
• The global cereal price index increased by 5% fromlast
quarter, and 71% from Q2-2010. Global maize andwheat prices almost doubled
(+98% and +95%respectively) compared to Q2-2010.
The large price increases occurred mostly inEastern
Africa (41% of the cases) followed by WesternAfrica (30% of the cases).
• Out of 64 countries monitored, the quarterly
impact onthe cost of the basic food basket is high(between
5% and 10%) in ten countries, and severe(above 10%) in seven countries
(Burundi, Ethiopia,Guinea, Kenya, Malawi, Somalia and Zambia). However,sharp increases in the cost of the basic food basket
wererecorded in 43 out of 49 countries for which data isavailable, when price
data are seasonally adjusted against their 2003-2007 average.
Staple food price trends at regional and country
levels
• Asia: Wheat, wheat flour and rice prices experienced double-digit
increases compared to last year, with smaller increasesin India (wheat +3%,
rice +4%), Pakistan (wheat flour +4%), Afghanistan (rice +8%) and the Philippines
(+1%).
• West Africa: Since Q1-2011, rice prices
(Q2-2011) have increased the most in Guinea (+45%), Sierra Leone(+14%),
Ghana (+13%) and Chad (+10%). It is noteworthy that seasonally adjusted rice
price declined substantiallycompared to Q1-2011 in Ghana (-15%, s.a.). Compared to last quarter, prices of maize have
increased significantlyin Chad (+51%), Ghana (+18%) and Benin (+26%). Wheat in
Guinea Bissau (+46%).The situation in Chad requires close monitoring as the
upward seasonal price pressure that has affected the majorstaple food
commodities (maize +40%, millet +27%, and imported rice +15%), might worsen in
the lean season.Hoarding triggered price increases in Benin, mainly in response
to rain delays, and in Guinea, influenced by restrictivetrade
measures affecting neighboring countries and erratic
state interventions in the imported rice supply chain.
• Central and Eastern Africa: A severe
drought is affecting the Horn of Africa, triggering substantial price increases
andconcerns over household food security. In Ethiopia, seasonally
adjusted sorghum, wheat, and maize prices increased by 17%, 32%, and 30%,respectively, compared to Q1-2011. In particular,
substitution effect caused by the absence of root crops has furtherexacerbated
maize and wheat price increases from Q1-2011 (+42% and +40%, respectively). The
formal export banimposed by Ethiopia in March 2011, might also have increased
pressure on maize prices in Kenya (+115%, s.a.),
andSomalia (+15%, s.a.),
where cereal stocks are rapidly depleting. The consequences of drought are
driving prices higheralso in parts of Uganda, where the price of cassava
flour increased by 25%from last quarter, beans 37%, and maize flour
41%.Conversely, heavy rains negatively affected the main agricultural season in
Burundi, resulting in sharp price increases for moststaple foods from
last quarter. Among others, the price of sweet potatoes increased by 84% from
last quarter or 100% whenseasonally adjusted. In Rwanda, the prices of
beans and maize increased by 16% and 9%, respectively from last quarter.
• Southern Africa: Prices of the most
commonly consumed staples decreased in several countries, compared to
lastquarter, especially maize in Malawi (-13%), Mozambique (-16%), Zambia
(-7%), and Zimbabwe (-2%), and local rice inMadagascar (-18%). The downward
trend in maize price is due to adequate production and availability on the
localmarkets across the region. However, the seasonally adjusted prices are
trending upward, with the exception ofMadagascar (-12%). This implies that the
stabilizing effect of the relative improvement in maize availability is yet
totranslate into significant seasonal price stability, especially in Malawi (+24%,
s.a.) and Zambia (+23%, s.a.).
• Latin America and Caribbean: Maize prices
continued their double-digit upward rise for the second quarter in a row in ElSalvador
(+16%), Guatemala (+15%), Honduras (+16%), and Nicaragua (+22%),
driving prices well above Q2-2010levels. Conversely, rice prices were
relatively stable or decreasing except in Colombia (+7%), and Peru (+8%),
whilst wheatflour prices slightly increased in Bolivia (+6%), Colombia (+6%),
and Haiti (+7%). Overall, staple food commodity pricesare
significantly high in the region, compared to last year and the 5-year average.
• Middle East and Central Asia: Staple food
prices are broadly stable or decreasing in the Middle Eastern countries
unlikein Central Asia. Decline in production due to lack of rains in the fall
has fueled high wheat prices in Tajikistan (+14%)
andin Kyrgyzstan (+7%). Wheat flour prices also moderately increased in Azerbaijan
(+4%) and Georgia (+7%). However,compared
to last year, wheat prices have increased in the range of anywhere between
16-76% in the Caucasian countries.
• Sudan: In North Sudan, while preparations
for the 2011-2012 agricultural season have started in
many rain-fed regions, mostsurplus regions are still enjoying the above-average
harvest of the previous season. Accordingly, nominal and seasonallyadjusted
sorghum prices decreased in all states (Blue Nile -10% s.a.,
South Darfur -10% s.a., West Darfur -22% s.a. andWhite Nile -15% s.a.) but South Kordofan.
Security problems, leading to restricted trade contributed to increasing
sorghumprices from last quarter in South Kordofan
(+18% in nominal terms and +11%, s.a.). In South Sudan, recent developmentshave yet to affect the downward
trend of prices in Q2-2011. Prices have declined both in Upper Nile
(white sorghum -13%),and Central Equatoria
(white maize -9%), although they remain well above Q2-2010 levels (+131%, and
+47% respectively).